India and Pakistan have made opposite strategic choices under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.
India built compliance architecture first. The Carbon Credit Trading Scheme, notified in 2023, now carries live obligations across seven sectors, with a national portal launched in March 2026. Article 6 is deliberately kept on a separate track, and authorized ITMO exports remain scarce. The stronger pull has been trade: the UK recognizes CCTS under its carbon border mechanism, and equivalence sits on the India–EU FTA agenda.
Pakistan positioned itself as a supplier. Its national carbon trading guidelines, approved in January 2025, cap tradeable volume at 280.5 MtCO2e. In April 2026 it signed a first bilateral Article 6.2 agreement with Norway covering clean energy and climate-smart agriculture. With NDC 3.0 costed at USD 565.7 billion and two-thirds conditional on external finance, the rationale is fiscal.
Both face sequencing risk, in opposite directions. Pakistan’s Carbon Market Rules remain unnotified, leaving announcements ahead of execution. India’s domestic build risks staying insulated from international capital.
The variable that matters is bargaining power: who can afford to withhold credits and wait for a better price, and who cannot.
